With two days away before we commence the final round of the 2023 NBL1 South season on Friday, there are six teams still fighting for four places.

Four teams are locked into the Top 8, but none have cemented their ladder position, everyone in the top 10 of the ladder are playing for those vital final positions, with the four-week final series commencing the week after, culminating in the Conference Grand Final on Saturday 12^th August.

With fourteen home & away games still left to play, eleven of those games have ladder implications. Teams currently placed 11th to 19th will be looking to cause upsets.

Teams qualified for NBL1 South 2023 Finals:

• Knox Raiders (Currently 1st with 16-4 record)
• Frankston Blues (Currently 2nd with 15-6 record)
• Sandringham Sabres (Currently 3rd with 14-6 record)(not allowing for head-to-head with Mount Gambier)
• Mount Gambier Pioneers (Currently 4th with 14-6 record)

Teams still alive (not allowing for head-to-head results):

• Eltham Wildcats (Currently 5th with 12-8 record)
• Waverley Falcons (Currently 6th with 12-8 record)
• Nunawading Spectres (Curently 7th with 12-9 record)
• Diamond Valley Eagles (Currently 8th with 12-9 record)
• Ballarat Miners (Currently 9th with 11-10 record)
• Hobart Chargers (Currently 10th with 11-10 record)

Ladder-impacting games (under-lined teams in finals contention)

• Hobart Chargers v. NW Tasmania Thunder (Friday 8:00pm)
• Nunawading Spectres v. Ringwood Hawks (Saturday 7:30pm)
• Kilsyth Cobras v. Knox Raiders (Saturday 7:30pm)
• Bendigo Braves v. Ballarat Miners (Saturday 7:30pm)
• Frankston Blues v. Sandringham Sabres (Saturday 8:00pm)
• Eltham Wildcats v. Diamond Valley (Saturday 8:00pm)
• Waverley Falcons v. Mount Gambier Pioneers (Saturday 8:30pm)
• Eltham Wildcats v. Mount Gambier Pioneers (Sunday 2:00pm)
• Knox Raiders v. Bendigo Braves (Sunday 2:00pm)
• Waverley Falcons v. Geelong United (Sunday 2:30pm)
• Melbourne Tigers v. Sandringham Sabres (Sunday 2:30pm)

Summary of potential outcomes

Knox Raiders (finals spot clinched)

• Knox have two games left to play against Kilsyth Cobras and Bendigo Braves. 
• Winning either or both games means they will Number 1 spot, having securing 17 wins.
• Losing both games means they could end up in a either a head-to-head with Frankston if they defeat Sandringham and Mount Gambier lose either of their remaining games OR a head-to-header with Sandringham if they win both their remaining games and Mount Gambier lose either of their remaining games OR a three-way with Mount Gambier and Frankston-or-Sandringham, provided these teams win all their remaining games. 

Frankston Blues (finals spot clinched)

• Frankston have one game left to play against the Sandringham Sabres.
• Winning this game gives Frankston 16 wins, placing them 2nd to Knox (due to head-to-head), provided Mount Gambier lose either of their games, OR 3rd spot if Mount Gambier win both their games.
• Losing this game puts Frankston at the mercy of Mount Gambier and Sandringham's Sunday afternoon results. It may come down to a three-way involving Mount Gambier and Sandringham. The lowest Frankston can fall is 4th with 15 wins.

Sandringham Sabres (finals spot clinched)

• Sandringham have two games left to play against Frankston Blues and Melbourne Tigers.
• If Sandringham wins both games, they will move to second and potentially a head-to-head with Mt Gambier, provided Mount Gambier win both of their games.
• If Sandringham only beat Frankston they will be in a head-to-head with Frankston, provided Mount either lose or win both thier remaining games. If Mount Gambier split their weekend, there will be a three-way between them. It will come down to Saturday night's result.
• If Sandringham only beat Melbourne the highest they can reach is 3rd. there situtation of head-to-head or a three-way will be determined by the Mount Gambier v. Eltham and Eltham v. Diamond Valley game.
• If Sandringham lose both games they risk potential head-to-head, three-ways or even a four-way including Mount Gambier, Eltham and Waverley.

Mount Gambier (finals spot clinched)

• Mount Gambier have two games left to play against Eltham Wildcats and Waverley Falcons
• Winning both games means gives Mount Gambier the opportunity to claim 2nd spot. They could face a head-to-heads with Frankston if they beat Sandringham or Sandringham if Sandringham claim two wins.
• Winning a single game creates the window of opportunity for a potential for three-way with Frankston and Sandringham. The result will be determined by the Frankston v. Sandringham game.

Eltham Wildcats

• Eltham have two games left to play against Mt Gambier Pioneers and Diamond Valley Eagles.
• Winning both games gives Eltham the opportunity to climb as high as 3rd, provided a three-way goes their way, and Frankston defeat Sandringham. If Frankston lose, the highest they can go is 3rd, but again this will come down to head-to-heads.
• Winning only one game means Eltham can finish anywhere between 5th and 8th based on head.
• Losing both games means Eltham could fall out of the finals, by losing a head-to-head or three way that involves Ballarat Miners and/or Hobart Chargers.

Waverley Falcons

• Waverley have two games left to play against Mount Gambier Pioneers and Geelong United.
• Winning both games gives Wavelrey the opportunity to climb as high as 3rd, provided Sandringham both their games and Mount Gambier lose to Eltham. 
• With only one win the highest they can climb is 5th place. This will come down to head-to-heads
• Losing both games means Waverley could fall to 7th/8th.

Nunawading Spectres

• Nunawading have one game left to play against Ringwood Hawks.
• Winning this games gives Nunawading the chance to climb as high as 5th. Their position will come down to head-to-heads.
• Losing this game means Nunawading could fall to 7th/8th.

Diamond Valley Eagles

• Diamond Valley have one game left to play against Eltham Wildcats
• Winning this games gives Diamond Valley the chance to climb as high as 5th. Their position will come down to head-to-heads.
• Losing this game means Diamond Valley could fall out of the finals, by losing a head-to-head or three way that involves Ballarat Miners and/or Hobart Chargers.

Ballarat Miners

• Ballarat have one game left to play against Bendigo Braves.
• Winning this games gives Ballarat the chance to climb as high as 6th. Their position will come down to head-to-heads.
• Losing this game will end Ballarat's season and finals hopes.

Hobart Chargers

• Hobart have one game left to play against NW Tasmania Thunder.
• Winning this games gives Hobart the chance to climb as high as 6th. Their position will come down to head-to-heads.
• Losing this game will end Hobart's season and finals hopes.

How is the competition ladder decided?

As per the league’s by-laws ‘6.9.2 End of Regular Season’ the competition’s ladder at the end of the regular season in order to determine a finals fixture, teams shall be placed in order of win/loss percentage.

If two (2) or more teams have the same win/loss percentage, final placings shall be determined by the head-to-head results in only those games played between the tied teams. If the two (2) or more teams remain tied, further criteria will be applied in the following order:

• Higher game points difference of the games between them;
• Higher number of game points scored in the games between them;
• Higher game points difference of all games;
• Higher number of game points scored in all games.
• If these criteria still cannot decide, a draw shall decide on the classification.

For example: i.e. Teams A & B have played 3 games and team C has only played 2 games but all have the same Win/Loss record for the season. This is caused because teams A & B were scheduled to play each other twice, where Team C was only scheduled to play Teams A & B once each. In the result that this eventuates and an even Head to Head cannot be calculated, the head to head results will revert to a % of wins in the games between these teams.

The process then repeated as many times as required to determine the eventual ladder. Each mini ladder or head-to-head calculation only determines one position. Again using the example above, if Team A was deemed the winner of the mini ladder of the three tied teams they would receive the highest available position. If that’s 8th then no further calculations will be required, however if that equals 7th or higher, then the process will start again for the next available position. Again in the tie of 3 teams where Team A has been successful in the mini ladder, the remaining two teams would be determined by a head to head result. If there are still more than 2 teams tied another mini ladder will be created and the next available position determined… and so on.

So remember…. One mini ladder does not determine all positions.