As we approach the 14th and final round of the NBL1 South 2024 season a few more teams have locked in a Top 8 finals position. The final round starts tonight, with a four-week finals series commencing the week after.
With 16 home & away games still left to play, as with the women’s competition,12 of those games have ladder implications.
Only three teams have clinched their final’s spot (before reviewing head-to-head results). Meanwhile, nine teams are still in mathematical contention for the remaining five spots in the Top 8.
Teams qualified for NBL1 South 2024 Finals:
- Mount Gambier Pioneers - Currently hold top spot with a 16-5 record and 1 game left to play.
- Ballarat Miners - Currently hold second spot with a 15-6 record and 1 game left to play.
- Sandringham Sabres - Currently hold third sport with a 14-6 record and 2 games left to play.
Teams still alive (not allowing for head-to-head results):
- Frankston Blues - Currently hold fourth spot with a 13-7 record and 2 games left to play
- Eltham Wildcats - Currently hold fifth spot with a 12-8 record and 2 games left to play
- Hobart Chargers - Currently hold sixth spot with a 12-8 record and 2 games left to play
- Dandenong Rangers - Currently hold seventh spot with a 12-8 record and 2 games left to play
- Keilor Thunder - Currently hold eight spot with a 12-8 record and 2 games left to play
- Knox Raiders - Currently hold ninth spot with a 12-9 record and 1 game left to play
- Waverley Falcons - Currently hold tenth spot with a 11-9 record and 2 games left to play
- Nunawading Spectres - Currently hold eleventh spot with a 10-10 record and 2 games left to play
- Geelong United - Currently hold twelfth spot with a 10-10 record and 2 games left to play
Ladder-impacting games (under-lined teams in finals contention)
- Sandringham Sabres v. Frankston Blues - Tuesday 8:00pm
- Keilor Thunder v. Eltham Wildcats - Thursday 8:00pm
- Melbourne Tigers v. Waverley Falcons - Thursday 8:00pm
- Frankston Blues v. Hobart Chargers - Friday 8:00pm
- Geelong United v. Waverley Falcons - Friday 8:00pm
- Nunawading Spectres v. Dandenong Rangers - Friday 8:00pm
- Mount Gambier Pioneers v. Ringwood Hawks - Friday 8:00pm
- Sandringham Sabres v. Hobart Chargers - Saturday 7:00pm
- Diamond Valley Eagles v. Geelong United - Saturday 8:00pm
- Eltham Wildcats v. Ballarat Miners - Saturday 8:00pm
- Knox Raiders v. Keilor Thunder - Saturday 8:00pm
- Dandenong Rangers v. North-West Tasmania Thunder - Sunday 2:00pm
Summary of potential outcomes
Mount Gambier Pioneers (Currently 1st, 16 Wins, 5 Losses, 1 Game left to play)
- Mount Gambier will play against Ringwood Saturday night
- If Mount Gambier win the game, they will lock in top spot of the ladder.
- If Mount Gambier lose the game, they may be in head-to-head situations with Ballarat and Sandringham, ii they win their respective games.
Ballarat Miners (Currently 2nd, 15 Wins, 6 Losses, 1 Game left to play)
- Ballarat will play against Eltham Saturday night
- If Ballarat win the game they can climb as high as top of the ladder, if Mount Gambier loses their game against Ringwood, due to head-to-head outcomes.
- If Ballarat lose the game they could fall to fourth, depending on head-to-head outcomes, of the Round 14 Sandringham v. Frankston game.
Sandringham Sabres (Currently 3rd, 14 Wins, 6 Losses, 2 Games left to play)
- Sandringham will play against Frankston and Hobart in Round 14
- If Sandringham win both games, the highest they can climb is second place, due to head-to-head results with Mount Gambier.
- Only defeating Frankston, means Sadnringham will finish third, due to head-to-head results with Ballarat.
- Only defeating Hobart, will see their position determined by head-to-head margin with Frankston, including their Round 14 game against Frankston
- Losing both games will see Sandringham, best case finish fourth, determined by head-to-head results
Frankston Blues (Currently 4th, 13 Wins, 7 Loses, 2 Games left to play)
- Frankston will play against Sandringham and Hobart in Round 14.
- If Frankston win both games, they could potential move to second place, if Ballarat lose their game aginst Eltham, otherwise depending on head-to-head, they may finish move up to thirs.
- If Frankston only defeat Sandringham, Frankston's position will be determined by both Sandringham's game against Hobart and head-to-head.
- If Frankston only defeat Hobart, they will potentionally finish fourth, depending on head-to-head situations
- Losing both games, can see Frankston drop as low as eigth depending on head to head results.
Eltham Wildcats (Currently 5th, 12 Wins, 8 Loses 2 Games left to play)
- Eltham will play against Keilor and Ballarat in Round 14.
- The results of these games will create many different head-to-head situations. Eltham will be keen to claim two wins to potentially earn a double-chance (top 4) position.
- With only 1 win, means Eltham will play finals
- Without a win in Round 14, Eltham could fall out of the finals, depending on other results.
Hobart Chargers (Currently 6th, 12 Wins, 8 Loses 2 Games left to play)
- Hobart will play against Frankston and Sandringham in Round 14.
- The results of these games will create many different head-to-head situations. Hobart will be keen to claim two wins to potentially earn a double-chance (top 4) position.
- Only 1 win, means Hobart will play finals
- Without a win in Round 14, Hobart could fall out of the Finals, depending on other results.
Dandenong Rangers (Currently 7th, 12 Wins, 8 Loses 2 Games left to play)
- Dandenong will play against Nunawading and North-West Tasmania in Round 14.
- The results of these games will create many different head-to-head situations. Dandenong will be keen to claim two wins to potentially earn a double-chance (top 4) position.
- Only 1 win, means Dandenong will play finals
- Without a win in Round 14, Dandenong could fall out of the Finals, depending on other results.
Keilor Thunder (Currently 8th, 12 Wins, 8 Loses 2 Games left to play)
- Keilor will play against Eltham and Knox in Round 14.
- The results of these games will create many different head-to-head situations. Keilor will be keen to claim two wins to potentially earn a double-chance (top 4) position.
- Only 1 win, means Keilor will play finals
- Without a win in Round 14, Keilor could fall out of the Finals, depending on other results.
Knox Raiders (Currently 9th, 12 Wins, 9 Loses, 1 Game left to play)
- Knox will play against Keilor Saturday night.
- If Knox can win their game against Keilor, they will claim their 13th win, which should be enough to earn a finals spots. Where they fininsh will depend on head-to-head results
- If Knox lose, they may not make finals, and will we solely relying on head-to-heads to claim a finals spot.
Waverley Falcons (Currently 10th, 11 Wins, 9 Loses, 2 Games left to play)
- Waverley will play against Melbourne and Geelong United in Round 14.
- If Waverley can win one or both games they will have 13 wins, which may be enough to land a finals spot, depending on other results, then head-to-head situations
- If Waverley lose both games, they will not play finals
Nunawading Spectres (Currently 11th, 10 Wins, 10 Loses, 2 Games left to play)
- Nunawading will play against Dandenong and North-West Tasmania in Round 14
- Nunawading must win both games, the hope for favourable outcomes in other games, then rely on head-to-head results to earn a finals spot
Geelong United (Currently 12th, 10 Wins, 10 Loses, 2 Games left to play)
- Geelong United will play against Waverley and Diamond Valley in Round 14
- Geelong United must win both games, the hope for favourable outcomes in other games, then rely on head-to-head results to earn a finals spot
How is the competition ladder decided?
As per the league’s by-laws ‘6.9.2 End of Regular Season’ the competition’s ladder at the end of the regular season in order to determine a finals fixture, teams shall be placed in order of win/loss percentage.
If two (2) or more teams have the same win/loss percentage, final placings shall be determined by the head-to-head results in only those games played between the tied teams. If the two (2) or more teams remain tied, further criteria will be applied in the following order:
- Higher game points difference of the games between them;
- Higher number of game points scored in the games between them;
- Higher game points difference of all games;
- Higher number of game points scored in all games.
- If these criteria still cannot decide, a draw shall decide on the classification.
For example: i.e. Teams A & B have played 3 games and team C has only played 2 games but all have the same Win/Loss record for the season. This is caused because teams A & B were scheduled to play each other twice, where Team C was only scheduled to play Teams A & B once each. In the result that this eventuates and an even Head to Head cannot be calculated, the head to head results will revert to a % of wins in the games between these teams..
The process then repeated as many times as required to determine the eventual ladder. Each mini ladder or head-to-head calculation only determines one position. Again using the example above, if Team A was deemed the winner of the mini ladder of the three tied teams they would receive the highest available position. If that’s 8th then no further calculations will be required, however if that equals 7th or higher, then the process will start again for the next available position. Again in the tie of 3 teams where Team A has been successful in the mini ladder, the remaining two teams would be determined by a head to head result. If there are still more than 2 teams tied another mini ladder will be created and the next available position determined… and so on.
So remember…. One mini ladder does not determine all positions.
