With only nine games and two days remaining in the NBL1 South Women's 2024 Regular Season, here's a preview of what all the potential outcomes of final ladder positions.
The top four teams are now locked away, with games tonight determining final positions.
Information regarding how the competition ladder is decided can be found at the bottom of the article.
Number 1-2 Spots
Knox Raiders and Keilor Thunder have locked away first and second spot, currently with 19 wins each. Both teams play against each other this evening, which will determine the final ladder position. Both teams will host a home final next weekend whatever the outcome of tonights game
Number 3 Spot
The Dandenong Rangers earnt their 15th win, and locked away third spot with their 75-54 win last night over the Nunwadaing Spectres. No game result can change their final ladder position.
Number 4 Spot
Mt Gambier Pioneers have locked away fourth spot, with all 22 games played and 14 wins. The Sandringham v. Hobart game and Ballarat v. Eltham game determine how it occurs.
- If both Sandringham lose to Hobart and Ballarat lose to Eltham, Mount Gambier will retain fourth spot, simply due to more wins.
- If either Sandringham or Ballarat lose, Mt Gambier will take fourt spot due to direct head-to-head results
- If Sandringham defeat Hobart, but Ballarat lose to Eltham, Mount Gambier will still retain fourth spot due to the head-to-head outcome. Mt Gambier def. Sandringham (85-68).
- If Sandringham lose to Hobart, and Ballarat defeat Eltham, Mount Gambier will still retain fourth spot due to the head-to-head outcome. Mt Gambier def. Ballarat (67-64)
- However, if both Sandringham and Ballarat win their 22nd game, the three-way head-to-head sees Mt Gambier still take away fourth spot
- Mt Gambier def. Sandringham (85-68)
- Mt Gambier def. Ballarat (67-64)
- Ballarat def. Sandringham (76-70)
Number 5 Spot
Four teams can finish the regular season with fifth spot; Sandringham Sabres, Ballarat Miners, and Eltham Wildcats. Here's how each team can earn fifth spot.
- Sandringham Sabres: If Sandringham defeat Hobart, this will be their 14th win. If Ballarat lose to Eltham, Sandringham will take fifth spot.
- Ballarat Miners: If Ballarat defeat Eltham, regardless of the Sandringham v. Hobart result, Ballarat will take fifth spot either due to more games won (14 wins) or the 14-win head-to-head with Sandringham
- Ballarat def. Sandringham (76-70)
- Eltham Wildcats: If Eltham defeat Ballarat and Sandringham lose to Hobart, this will then create a 4-team head-to-head situation between Sandringham, Ballarat, Eltham and Waverley. Tonight's Ballarat v. Eltham margin will determine if Eltham can claim fifth spot. If Eltham can win by 10 points or more they will claim fith spot
- Ballarat def. Sandringham (76-70)
- Ballarat def. Waverley (77-62)
- Ballarat def. Eltham (75-66)
- Waverley def. Sandringham (66-54)
- Sandringham def. Eltham 68-59
- Eltham def. Sandringham (89-79)
- Eltham def. Waverley (91-81)
- Ballarat v. Eltham (13/07/2024) - yet to be played
- Although Waverley are tied into the potential 4-team head-to-head situation, they are unable to take fifth spot.
Number 6-8 Spots
Mathematically, depending on the outcomes of fourth and fifth spot, the following teams can earn a finals spot: Ballarat, Sandringham, Eltham, Waverley, Geelong United and Bendigo Braves.
Ballarat, Sandringham and Eltham's final position will the determined by the above mentioned fourth and fifth spots
With all 22 games played and 13 wins, Waverley have secured a finals spot, to be determined by the remaining games to be played.
If Bendigo Braves defeats Kilsyth, and Eltham lose to Ballarat, they will take 8th spot via either a direct head-to-head of a 3-team head-to-head with Eltham and Geelong United, if Geelong United defeat Kilsyth.
If Geelong United defeat Diamond Valley, Eltham lose to Ballarat, and Bendigo lose to Kilsyth, Geelong United will earn 8th spot due to head-to-head with Eltham
How is the competition ladder decided?
As per the league’s by-laws ‘6.9.2 End of Regular Season’ the competition’s ladder at the end of the regular season in order to determine a finals fixture, teams shall be placed in order of win/loss percentage.
If two (2) or more teams have the same win/loss percentage, final placings shall be determined by the head-to-head results in only those games played between the tied teams. If the two (2) or more teams remain tied, further criteria will be applied in the following order:
- Higher game points difference of the games between them;
- Higher number of game points scored in the games between them;
- Higher game points difference of all games;
- Higher number of game points scored in all games.
- If these criteria still cannot decide, a draw shall decide on the classification.
For example: i.e. Teams A & B have played 3 games and team C has only played 2 games but all have the same Win/Loss record for the season. This is caused because teams A & B were scheduled to play each other twice, where Team C was only scheduled to play Teams A & B once each. In the result that this eventuates and an even Head to Head cannot be calculated, the head to head results will revert to a % of wins in the games between these teams..
The process then repeated as many times as required to determine the eventual ladder. Each mini ladder or head-to-head calculation only determines one position. Again using the example above, if Team A was deemed the winner of the mini ladder of the three tied teams they would receive the highest available position. If that’s 8th then no further calculations will be required, however if that equals 7th or higher, then the process will start again for the next available position. Again in the tie of 3 teams where Team A has been successful in the mini ladder, the remaining two teams would be determined by a head to head result. If there are still more than 2 teams tied another mini ladder will be created and the next available position determined… and so on.
So remember…. One mini ladder does not determine all positions.
